Global chargeable weight in February 2020 fell – on a like-for-like basis – by nearly 9% versus 2019 as the air cargo industry suffered the dramatic consequences of the novel coronavirus on world trade.
Market analyses by CLIVE Data Services for last month shows that conducting a basic year-on-year comparison of airfreight volumes would have produced a decline of close to 2%. However, adjusting the analyses for the fact that the Chinese New Year fell early this year (-3%) and the fact that February 2020 is a Leap Year, with an extra day over the same month a year ago (-4%), takes the overall decline to close to -9%.
Looking in further detail at the Hong Kong market, February’s data reveals the return to a more ‘normal’ dynamic load factor picture This, however, is more related to the capacity taken out of the market by airlines than a surge in demand. Air cargo volumes out of Hong Kong are still 30% below their level post Chinese New Year and 23% less than in the same week of last year. On a more positive note, the step-by-step growth in chargeable weight does indicate that Chinese demand for cargo capacity is showing the early signs of shifting gear.
The dynamic load factor for February 2020 of 65% was down 1% year-on-year but 3% higher than in January.
CLIVE’s Managing Director, Niall van de Wouw said: “If ever there was a moment when we can highlight the limitations of basic month-on-month analyses from a methodology standpoint, this is it. While all three analyses are correct by themselves, it is our opinion that the near -9% decline in February is the best ‘temperature reading’ of the state of the global air cargo industry. Without the normalization of the data we have applied, the picture is skewed.”
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